Will Barcelona secede from Spain? Catalan independence is up for a vote — and Russia is stirring the pot
BARCELONA
— Here in Spain’s second-largest city, long a magnet for American
tourists, life on the surface appears as festive as ever, from the beach
terraces laden with pitchers of sangria to the crowds browsing the
kiosks on the pedestrian median of La Rambla, which almost immediately
returned to normal after last month’s terror attack.
But the tension brewing just below the surface of Catalonia, the
wealthy northeast region of 7.5 million of which Barcelona is capital,
burst into the open Wednesday morning with a series of raids by national
police on the regional ministry of finance, leading to at least a dozen
arrests of senior officials, followed by hours of flag-waving marches
and demonstrations.
At
issue is a wave of Catalan nationalism culminating in a referendum on
secession, scheduled for Oct. 1. The regional government has said that
if the vote passes, it is prepared to declare its independence within 48
hours. The Spanish government in Madrid, headed by Prime Minister
Mariano Rajoy, has declared the referendum illegal and unconstitutional —
and is doing everything it can to prevent it. “The vote,” Rajoy vows,
“will never take place.”
Regional
unrest is not new to Spain. The Euskadi Ta Askatasuna (or ETA, the
acronym for Basque Homeland and Liberty), the militant arm of the Basque
separatist movement in Spain’s north, has fought for independence with
terror bombings that have killed hundreds. But the Catalan situation is
unprecedented, in part because it appears to have significant support
from outside the country, notably from WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange,
who has been promoting the cause of Catalan independence with a series
of incendiary tweets and posts.
Assange is widely suspected of fronting for Russia, which as part of its campaign to destabilize Western democracies has supported secessionist movements from Scotland to Texas.
Barcelona and the surrounding resort towns along the Costa Brava are
favorite vacation and second-home spots for wealthy Russians, including
alleged mafia heads reportedly linked to the Kremlin. Some of them are
facing criminal charges by the national government — charges that might
not survive a transition to a new, Russia-friendly Catalan national
government. “The situation is confusing and highly combustible,” says
one longtime resident who declined to be quoted by name, given the
intensity of feeling on the issue.
Appearing
before the Catalan government building in Barcelona’s main square,
Carles Puigdemont, president of Catalonia, denounced the arrests. “The
[national] government has crossed a red line separating it from
totalitarian regimes and has become a democratic shame.” The autonomous
government of Catalonia, he added, had effectively been shut down that
morning by Madrid.
Catalonia,
which has its own distinctive culture and language, was never fully
assimilated into Spain, itself a patchwork of 17 autonomous regions. But
the primary grievance now is economic. Comprising 16 percent of the
country’s population, the region contributes more than 19 percent of
Spain’s GDP, and while it enjoys substantial autonomy, Catalans often
complain they don’t get enough in return.
Events
have played out at a dizzying pace. The act establishing the referendum
was rammed through the Catalan Parliament just two weeks ago, during a
tense 11-hour session that prompted 52 members of the three opposition
parties to walk out, lamenting that the Parliament had been hijacked by
separatists. The only question on the ballot will be: “Do you want
Catalonia to be an independent country in the form of a republic?” A
second law passed that night declared that regardless of how many voters
participate, if the yes votes win on Oct. 1, a new independent country
would be formed within two days.
The
latest polls show only 41 percent of Catalans favor independence, with
nearly 49 percent against it. But anyone following the issue on the
WikiLeaks Twitter account might imagine that tanks are rolling down the
streets of Barcelona, civil war has broken out, a “Spanish Tiananmen
Square” may be imminent — and the late dictator Francisco Franco has
returned from the grave to crush Catalonia’s aspirations. On September
11 — National Catalonia Day — when a million demonstrators filled the
streets waving Catalan flags and calling for independence, Assange
tweeted, “If today is a guide, on Oct. 1 Europe will birth a new 7.5m
nation or civil war.”
“Catalonia
will decide its own future on October 1,” declared Catalan President
Puigdemont. “No one has the authority or the power to seize our right to
decide.”
The
government in Madrid loudly disagreed: Rajoy lambasted the move as “an
intolerable act of disobedience” and the Constitutional Court in Madrid
promptly suspended both Catalan laws. Last Friday, Rajoy thundered into
Barcelona, threatening to dissolve the considerable autonomy the region
already enjoys. He backed the threat by taking over the Catalan
government finances, including payrolls for the local police — a
maneuver that some here believe will make holding the referendum
impossible.
But
Puigdemont and the separatist faction of the Catalan government have
vowed to carry on, and in recent days the game of cat and mouse has
escalated. Puigdemont called upon the 948 mayors across Catalonia to
make preparations to hold the vote; Rajoy warned that they’d be
criminally prosecuted, though that didn’t stop the 700-plus officials
who heeded Puigdemont’s request to ready the voting booths from rallying
in Barcelona on Saturday, promising, “We will vote!”
Puigdemont
— who faces criminal charges of disobedience, abuse of power and
misusing public funds — called upon citizens to pressure the remaining
mayors to join the movement. Some have reportedly received death
threats. The Catalan government sent out letters to 55,000 voters across
the region, commanding them to man the voting booths; Rajoy’s
government ordered the national postal service not to deliver the
letters, then raided private courier services who’d taken over delivery.
The national government shut down Catalan sites promoting the vote and
independence; the Catalan government put them up again via proxies — a
clever move publicized by Assange and Russia’s English-language news
outlet RT.
In
dozens of tweets, Assange dramatically kept up the drumbeat, recounting
the raids on pro-secession newspapers and the plants suspected of
printing ballots and posters and the confiscated ballot boxes. He didn’t
care about independence, Assange tweeted, but he supported Catalonia’s
right to decide — apparently even if it went against the Constitution.
The
details for a vision of a free and independent Catalonia are vague.
Financial advisers have warned that secession would ruin the regional
economy, and the move would automatically mean cutting ties to the
European Union. Catalonia would have to reapply to the EU, a process
that typically takes years. Banks and corporations have threatened to
move elsewhere. Catalonia’s Moody’s bond rating puts it on a par with
Bangladesh, and nobody seems quite sure what currency Catalonia would
use.
Despite
the uncertainties and the constant cries of illegality from Madrid,
Puigdemont and the Catalan Parliament, where separatists hold a narrow
majority, have stoked the concept for months.
They’ve
traveled to countries from Denmark to Morocco, without much to show for
it. Several weeks ago they hired lobbyists — paying the U.S. firm SGR
$60,000 to press the secession cause on Capitol Hill. Their biggest
success was with California Republican Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, known as
“Putin’s favorite congressman,” who recently met with Assange in his
London Embassy hideout. Rohrabacher has said he supports
self-determination for Catalonia, though that doesn’t reflect official
U.S. policy. Given that Spain is a close ally of the U.S. and a member
of NATO, the Catalan separatist cause has achieved little traction in
the international community.
Wednesday
morning, however, Barcelona awoke to news that the finance ministry had
been seized, with at least 12 high-ranking officials and consultants
arrested — reportedly accused of diverting public funds to support the
referendum. Even though it was later revealed that the order didn’t come
from Rajoy, who was reportedly unaware until the news broke, he quickly
became the object of Catalan anger.
“Spain’s
government acts like a banana monarchy — embarrassing for Europe!”
Assange tweeted, and also stirred the pot by asking if Rajoy should
resign and warning Catalans that Madrid might cut all internet access — a
claim that appears to be entirely without basis.
Within
two hours, thousands of locals gathered in front of the uptown
ministry, waving flags, singing the Catalan anthem and chanting
“Democracy!” “We will vote!” and “Out with the occupation forces!” —
reminiscent of the 1970s chants in the protests against Franco’s rule.
A
block away, on Passeig de Gràcia, life went on as normal. Shoppers
walked by clutching bags from clothing store Zara and Japanese tourists
lined up in front of buildings whose façades boast the fantastical
swirls and swoops of architect Antoni Gaudi.
“The
separatists are just orchestrating a theater here, looking for
international outrage,” says one who grew up here, but who’s against
secession. “Nothing will change here.” And he supports Rajoy’s actions.
“Madrid is simply applying the rule of law — like any other country
would.”
Given
Spain’s constitutional prohibition on unilateral secession —
specifically its requirement that all Spaniards vote on the matter if
one region wants to secede — Rajoy appears legally in the right. He’s
backed by the king, the Spanish government and even his main opposition
in the Spanish Parliament — the Socialists — as well as some
anti-secession Catalan politicians. He has the authority to declare an
emergency and deploy troops, moves he’s promised to avoid. The police
have allowed demonstrations to take place unimpeded. While some liken
Rajoy to Turkey’s autocratic president Erdogan, others liken him to
Lincoln, desperately striving to preserve the union.
But
some citizens are bothered by the spectacle of a national government
squelching a region’s right to self-determination. A recent El Pais poll
showed that a majority of Catalans believed that while the current
referendum appears to be illegal, Madrid’s actions are only tipping the
balance for the separatists. “When you have the government raiding
printing offices, confiscating information about a vote, it looks
oppressive,” says one local investment broker.
And
back in London, Julian Assange continues his Free Catalonia marathon,
tapping out more than 80 provocative tweets in recent days, using
archival photos — showing police in riot gear (which currently they
aren’t wearing) dragging off a protester and tanks (which currently
aren’t in use here). His dramatic updates have led to media speculation
that Assange is actually fronting for Russia, a charge he denies.
But
Russia’s interest in Catalonia is clear. The Russian news agency RT has
been assiduously covering the Catalan crisis. Catalonia sent a delegate
for the last two years to a forum in Moscow run by a Kremlin-supported
organization, the Anti-Globalization Movement of Russia. The delegate,
José Enrique Folch, promised that if Catalonia became independent, it
would accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea and drop sanctions against
Moscow. The only international politicians who have taken up the Catalan
cause appear to be Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and
Venezuela’s dictatorial president Nicolás Maduro, both of whom are close
to Putin.
When
contacted yesterday, Folch, who works outside Barcelona as an
international economist, and whose party isn’t in the Parliament, was
equivocal about Catalonia’s future foreign policy, saying its stance on
Crimea and sanctions would depend on whether Russia recognized an
independent Catalonia. He remained hopeful that Catalonia would stage
its referendum on October 1 and become a free republic two days later.
The actions of Madrid were “absolutely criminal, absolutely
unacceptable,” he said. His voice lowered. “We’re being persecuted.” It
was a good thing I’d called when I did, he added. “We’re not sure how
long we can talk about the matter freely.”
Melissa Rossi, a writer based in Barcelona, is the author of the “What Every American Should Know” geopolitical series for Plume/Penguin.
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